Narrative Fallacy Dangers, QAnon & Changing Careers - Weekly Mix #158

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Narrative Fallacy Dangers, QAnon & Changing Careers

Happy Tuesday ,

I hope you had a great weekend! Here's what I've been reading and thinking about over the last week:

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Dangers of the Narrative Fallacy

I have little interest in following politics, the stock market, or the news in general.

What does interest me, however, is the psychology driving these areas. The same core psychological principles tend to govern how politics work, why the news operates the way it does, and probably to a much larger extent than we realize, the stock market.

One of the most important of these principles is the narrative fallacy.

The narrative fallacy "leads us to see events as stories, with logical chains of cause and effect". We like to tell stories. And for good reason: "Stories help us make sense of the world."

But there are risks too: "...if we’re not aware of the narrative fallacy it can lead us to believe we understand the world more than we really do."

I read about the QAnon conspiracy theory this week, which believes that there is a small group of people controlling the US, led of course by Hillary Clinton, and that Donald Trump is seeking to disrupt this group. "QAnon" refers to an anonymous poster on message boards, under the name "Q", who occasionally posts cryptic messages warning of coming danger.

The theory has gained significant following in the US, particularly with evangelicals. The story is near unbelievable, and worth the full read.

At the core of this wild story is the narrative fallacy: all these events are happening that I don't understand, that I don't like, and this story links them together in a way that must be true.

The stock market's recent rally may be another example, particularly specific cases like Tesla.

One of the things Elon Musk has done well is turning Tesla into a story.

He published Part I and Part II of his "master plan" in 2006 and 2016, and has generally kept with, and executed on, the plan. Tesla is here to save the world.

Tesla's stock price puts it well ahead of other car companies in terms of valuation, despite still producing a much lower volume of cars compared to other companies.

The article referenced above notes that professional investors are now working from home, where their sources of information are now the entire internet, instead of a Bloomberg terminal or professional analysts. The volume of non-professional trading on apps like Robinhood has increased dramatically during COVID as well.

I'm not a professional investor, nor do I know whether Tesla's stock is valued correctly or not.

But what we're seeing here may just be another case of the narrative fallacy. Tesla has told a better story about their market trajectory than other carmakers, and we are believing their story.

Narratives help us remember things, help us convey information, and help us learn. They are a powerful tool.

But we must know when we are using them, and when narratives are clouding our judgment.

Book Notes I Added: The Art of War by Sun Tzu

A classic book on wartime strategy, these notes have been a long time coming. Easy to absorb and apply to everyday life, and almost all strategy.

Articles I'm Reading:

The Prophecies of Q - The Atlantic - I'd heard about the QAnon conspiracy theory(ies) before, but this was the first time digging in. It's a scary look into what can happen when people spend a lot of time on the internet, and theories are given legitimacy from figures of authority.

What You'll Wish You'd Known & How to Do What You Love - Paul Graham - It's a time of upheaval for many people, having either lost jobs, experienced a lot of change, or just spent more time thinking about what they want and what's important. These are two essays I usually point people towards when considering career changes or what to do with their life.

Perfect Pedaling: Get a Better Pedal Stroke - Bicycling - I bought a single-speed mountain bike this week. As a result, I now need to learn to pedal much smoother to be able to maintain higher speeds. This was the most useful article I found, particularly the points about dropping the heel as you come down, and "the advice popularized by Greg LeMond: "Act like you're scraping mud off the bottom of your shoe.""

A Hawaii-Based Couple Build a Luminous Tiny House in Just 25 Days - Dwel - Your weekly dose of tiny home/cabin inspiration comes from Hawaii this week. A talented family team helped this one happen, but building a livable home in just 25 days is an impressive feat.

Want To Escape From America? 12 Countries Where You Can Buy Citizenship (And A Second Passport) - Forbes - I knew there were countries you could buy passports, but I didn't know the list was quite this long, or in some cases, this affordable (relatively).

The Return of Anonymous - The Atlantic - I've always been fascinated by Anonymous, the activist hacker group, and they appear to have returned in some form. The interesting part is that like many things we don't fully understand, they don't seem to be much more than an ad-hoc group of individuals who want to make a difference (albeit with hacking talent).

Photos from this week: I spent the weekend on the water helping out with a local sailing regatta...Nova Scotia is a great place to spend the summer (first image taken by my brother Alex).

Have a great week!

Graham

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