COVID-19, Machine Tools, Twitter & Productivity - Weekly Mix #140

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COVID-19, Machine Tools, Twitter & Productivity

Hello !

It's been a crazy week so far, both economically and in the news. I'll touch briefly on my thoughts, and then we'll get to the newsletter.

First of all, Taylor Pearson put together a great piece on COVID-19 here, that I recommend you read.

The stock market has been wild with speculation the past couple days, as the virus starts to spread in North America. I wrote last week that you should be prepared, and I stand by that.

There are a couple points I want to make again that I think are relevant.

1) Even if you are not in a risk group, you have a duty to prevent spread

This graphic from Taylor's article shows why:

Being diligent about preventing spread is about enabling our healthcare systems to deal with those who do get seriously sick, like those at high risk and the elderly.

2) People are very bad in general at understanding exponentials

Governments and corporations often move slowly in general, but when it comes to exponentials, we're all bad. The problem here is, by the time everyone realizes how exponentials work, it's too late to do any prevention. The example Pearson gives sheds a bit of light on this: "If there are 13,000 Covid-19 cases outside China, it doesn’t seem so bad. If this number doubles every 3 days, it still doesn’t seem so bad. But, at that rate, we’ll have 1.7 million cases in 3 weeks, and that seems pretty bad."

The following graphic sheds some light too (log scale):

Unfortunately, I don't have faith that we will act early and appropriately, which means that it's unlikely we'll manage to control and spread out the load on our healthcare.

3) Finally, there are serious (though unlikely) risks here.

The mortality rate is still unclear, but has been estimated anywhere between 0.1% and 15% in the elderly. Even if it's 1%, 1 in 100 people infected will die. You will know someone who dies if this is the case. That sort of risk alone should make you take some preventative measures, but again, even if you're in the low-risk category, it's vital that you try and prevent spread so that those who need it can seek treatment.

Okay, that's enough for now. I do recommend you read Taylor's article and follow the recommendations.

Articles I'm Reading:

How To Make Lots of Money During the Next Downturn - Financial Samurai - A bit late for this, but better late than never. Here are some of the ways you can make money during downturns in the market (note that I am not an investor). Or, as Warren Buffett supposedly said "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

The Holloway Guide to Using Twitter - I really enjoyed this long-form ebook on how to use Twitter better. It's something I'd like to do more of, and I like what Holloway is after (long-form, curated content). A great counter to the usual information overload we all experience today.

Person I'm Reading About: Gene Haas

After watching the F1 documentary I recommended last week, I was interested in learning more about Gene Haas, one of the sponsors of a mid- to lower-level team in F1. Software innovation tends to take a lot of the spotlight these days, but Gene has an equally interesting story.

He founded a small machine shop, and then started building his own machines to improve production. He formed Haas Automation in 1983 after showing some of his prototypes at trade shows, and has build it into one of the largest machine tool builders in the world, with approximately 1500 employees as of 2013. He's also the sole shareholder. Amazing story, and the kind of combination of engineering ability and entrepreneurship that I love.

Book I'm Reading: Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity - David Allen

This is what Tiago Forte's PARA organization system is largely based on, and I can't believe I didn't read it before. I haven't finished, but no doubt it will be one of the top productivity books I've ever read.

Product I Want: Aer's new Work Collection

An Aer backpack is my daily bag, and they make my favorite bags in general these days. They just released their all-new Work collection. I can't recommend them enough.

Have a great week!

Graham

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