Is rooftop solar worth it in Nova Scotia in 2026?
A recent Nova Scotia solar quote shows what a home system costs. See payback under current NS Power rates and compare the return with investing the cash.
ByGraham Mann6-min readI recently got a quote for a 14.52-kilowatt solar system in Nova Scotia. It would cost $36,928 after tax, and the installer estimates it would generate 17,043 kilowatt-hours of electricity a year.
Assuming all that power is used, it would save about $3,423 on the first year's power bill at today's rate.
I ran a similar calculation years ago, then updated it in 2018. That update found a roughly 12-year payback and included a rebate that is no longer available.
This time I want to know two things: how long it takes to get the cost back through lower bills, and how solar compares with investing the same money.
The price and the first year's savings
The quote is for 33 panels, an inverter, mounting and installation. It has no battery.
| Cost | Amount |
|---|---|
| Complete installed system, before tax | $32,393 |
| 14% HST | $4,535 |
| Total paid | $36,928 |
The current NS Power residential rate is 19.128 cents per kilowatt-hour. After Nova Scotia's rebate of the provincial portion of HST on home electricity, avoiding one kilowatt-hour of purchased power saves about 20.084 cents, including the remaining 5% tax.
Multiply that by 17,043 kWh and the first-year saving is about $3,423. The monthly base charge would still be due.
How much might power rates rise?
The residential energy charge rose from 16.354 cents per kWh in February 2023 to 17.703 cents in 2024, 18.561 cents in 2025, and 19.128 cents in May 2026. Those steps were increases of 8.2%, 4.8% and 3.1%. Over the whole period, the increase works out to about 5% a year.
These are the rates that took effect on those dates, rather than each year's average bill. The figures come from the provincial regulator's rate history and NS Power's 2026 rate explanation.
NS Power's approved tariff raises the underlying residential per-kWh rate by about 4% in January 2027. Other adjustments on the bill can change the final rate. I found no approved increases after 2027, so the later years in this calculation are estimates. I use 4% a year as the main case and look at faster increases below.
Payback versus investing
If power rates rise 4% a year and all the solar power is used, bill savings cover the $36,928 cost in about 9.3 years. That's simple payback: it adds the dollars saved each year without considering what those dollars could have earned elsewhere.
To make that comparison, I also calculated how long it takes the savings to repay the cost after allowing for an investment return. The last column brings 30 years of savings back to today's dollars at that return, then subtracts the $36,928 paid up front. A positive number means solar comes out ahead of that assumed return in this model.
| If the money could earn... | Simple payback | Payback allowing for that return | Extra value over that return after 30 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% a year | 9.3 years | 12.3 years | +$42,865 |
| 7% a year | 9.3 years | 14.3 years | +$24,667 |
| 10% a year | 9.3 years | 19.9 years | +$7,176 |
A comparison in today's dollars, not an amount you'd receive in year 30. These figures include neither a rebate nor a battery, and assume no maintenance or equipment replacement cost.
Why 10%? Historical S&P 500 returns, including dividends, compounded at about 10% a year from 1928 through 2025. I use it as a demanding comparison, not a prediction.
It's a US-dollar stock-market result before an individual Canadian investor's taxes, fees and exchange-rate effects, and stocks can have large losses along the way. The 5% and 7% rows let you compare other returns you might actually expect to keep.
Faster power-rate increases help solar because each kilowatt-hour it produces replaces more expensive power. At a 7% alternative investment return, here's what happens if rates rise faster through 2035, then slow to 3% a year:
| Power-rate increase | Simple payback | Payback allowing for a 7% return |
|---|---|---|
| 4% a year | 9.3 years | 14.3 years |
| 6% a year through 2035, then 3% | 8.7 years | 12.7 years |
| 8% a year through 2035, then 3% | 8.2 years | 11.4 years |
The 6% and 8% increases are possibilities to test, not NS Power projections. The fact that the system would protect some of my power use from those increases is a benefit beyond the central estimate.
Rebates, lifetime and the other benefits
I haven't counted an installation rebate. The provincial SolarHomes program is closed to new applicants, and the federal Canada Greener Homes grant and loan are closed. That makes the upfront price especially important.
I model 30 years of generation, with output falling 0.5% a year as the panels age. The US Department of Energy estimates panels typically operate for 25 to 35 years. The quoted panels have a stated 30-year performance warranty, but that is a promise about output, not an expiry date. Panels can keep producing after a warranty ends, usually at lower output.
The inverter typically has a shorter life of around 10 to 15 years, so I would expect to budget for its replacement eventually.
The quote also lists a 25-year mounting leakproof warranty and a five-year workmanship warranty. The overall mounting and electrical system is usually designed around a 25- to 30-year life, though roof attachments and connections may need attention along the way.
That replacement isn't priced in the quote or included in the main results. If I add a hypothetical $8,000 inverter replacement in year 15, the payback allowing for a 7% return moves from 14.3 to 15.8 years under the 4% power-rate case. If generation is 15% lower than estimated, the same payback becomes 17.7 years.
I have also left out maintenance, roof work and any changes in insurance costs; each would reduce the return if incurred.
There are benefits the payback tables don't price. Generating power provides some protection if NS Power rates rise faster than expected. It also leaves open the possibility of adding a battery, or a battery and generator, for backup power or even off-grid operation later. I haven't assigned those future options a dollar value.
If you have or expect to get an electric car, charging it at home gives you another way to use the solar output. SWTCH's home program currently pays for electricity measured by its EV charger through Canada's Clean Fuel Regulations. That payment is for charging the car, whether the electricity came from the grid or the panels. It isn't a payment for solar sent to the grid, so I haven't added it to the solar return.
If your roof isn't suitable, community solar is another option, with different economics from the system I've modelled here.
My conclusion
I like the economics at this price. The simple payback is around nine years, and the model still comes out ahead over 30 years when I compare it with a 7% return elsewhere. Even the 10% stock-market benchmark leaves a smaller positive result, though it demands much more patience.
How well it works will depend on the roof's direction and shape, shading, and other details of the property. For a suitable roof, and assuming you can use the electricity, I think solar is a good investment if you have the cash.