The Trough of Sorrow, Golf, and Dogs - Weekly Mix #152

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The Trough of Sorrow, Golf, and Dogs

Happy Monday!
Happy 4th of July weekend to all the American readers, I hope you have a great long weekend.

I spent some time working in the US over the past five years, and I've always had a good experience. Many outside the US are quick to criticize the current state of affairs, but the reality is every country has their issues.

In my experience, there are great people all over and it is still one of the most innovative and ambitious countries in the world.

The theme for this week's newsletter seems to be golf. I spent more time than usual playing this week, including time at the range and a frustratingly inconsistent (but beautiful) round Friday evening.

I spent time at the range hoping to improve my swing.

The process, which is slow and frustrating, reminded me of a couple principles.

The first is setting realistic expectations.

I was reminded of the "Trough of Sorrow", usually attributed to Paul Graham, the startup investor, which looks like this:

Not all products follow a path like this, and the labels obviously don't apply to a golf swing. But the important bit here is the idea that things will likely get worse before they get better.

Setting this expectation up front can make a big difference in motivation, and your likelihood to succeed.

If you enter a venture–whether starting a startup, or attempting to improve your golf swing–expecting an extended period of "sorrow", you'll be more likely to push through and see improvement.

The second principle is favouring habits (or process) over goals, particularly when learning something new.

James Clear refers to them as "reps", and says "The goal is just an event — something that you can't totally control or predict. But the reps are what can make the event happen. If you ignore the outcomes and focus only on the repetitions, you'll still get results."

Farnam Street also has a great article about the benefits of habits over goals: "Keeping a goal in mind and using it to direct our actions requires constant willpower. During times when other parts of our lives deplete our supply of willpower, it can be easy to forget our goals."

Goals take a long time to achieve, and are often highly unpredictable, which can lead to disappointment.

Habits and process, on the other hand, are simple. I don't need to focus on my long-term goal of consistently low golf scores.

I can just focus on going to the range more instead. That habit will eventually yield results.

The same is true of almost any venture where the outcomes are hard to predict.

Expect setbacks and regression, even if things show promise initially.

Focus on getting in your reps, and building the habit.

The results will come eventually.

Articles I'm Reading:

Error Drag: A Lesson In Strategy From Tiger Woods - Breaking the Market - This piece is a bit math-heavy, but rounds out our golf theme with an important idea: "misses" in life don't tend to have equal outcomes. For example, if you keep a budget and have mortgage payments to make, the consequences of spending less than your budget are much less severe than the consequences of going over. Thinking about which sides we can afford to "miss" on gives us a strategic advantage.

The Next Brand, Episode #8 Newsletter - Justin Mares - Justin Mares has an excellent newsletter, and in this episode, he talks about building a product that allowed people to support local restaurants by buying gift cards. They built it in 24 hours using no-code tools, and got acquired by USA Today 3 days later. I love hearing stories about building things like this, and would like to spend some time doing this myself at some point.

Wasting second place - Seth Godin - If you've ever applied for jobs, and never heard back, this will probably hit home for you. I like the underlying question: where else could we be giving people feedback that we don't right now? What could we be making public that we aren't?

Fun Fact: Dogs don't age linearly. From The Economist (paywall): To convert a dog’s age to its human equivalent, the rule of thumb has long suggested multiplying by seven. But dogs can have puppies when they are nine months old, which hardly corresponds to humans’ reproductive age. Now, scientists reporting in Cell Systems, a journal, have developed a more accurate way to age dogs using epigenetics...Researchers analysed the epigenetics of 104 Labradors aged between 0 and 16 years old, and cross-referenced mouse and human data to create a new scale. It is non-linear: a one-year-old dog is 30 years old in human years, but a four-year-old is 52. Dogs age rapidly compared with humans in early life. But after around seven years of life, their ageing slows. The findings serve as a reminder of how humans’ extended childhoods are somewhat anomalous compared with other species.

Book I'm Reading: The Great CEO Within - Matt Mochary

The playbook for a number of top startups in Silicon Valley right now, this is designed to be short and actionable for those leading companies. You will find something in here if you are involved in a startup, and it provides an interesting look at how some of the top CEOs think (or should be thinking).

What I'm Watching: Transform Golf - Danny Maude

These have been my main learning videos in tweaking my swing this week. The only downside is that Danny is a right-handed golfer, so when I'm comparing my own swing videos it's not quite as intuitive. Otherwise, great videos.

Have a great week!

Graham

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